Market Readout
February 11, 2005
Market Expectations
Jan/05
Median - Aggregate
4 weeks ago 1 week ago
Feb/05
Today
Weekly trend*
=
4 weeks ago 1 week ago
(2)
Today
IPCA (%)
0.61
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.65
0.65
IGP-DI (%)
0.64
-
-
0.50
0.49
0.47
IGP-M (%)
0.63
-
-
0.54
0.46
0.40
IPC-Fipe (%)
0.60
-
-
0.40
0.40
0.40
Exchange rate - end-of-period (R$/US$)
2.73
-
-
2.75
2.65
2.65
18.25
-
-
18.25
18.75
18.75
Over-Selic Target (% p.a.)
Weekly trend*
=
▼
▼
=
=
=
(2)
(2)
(2)
(4)
(1)
(1)
* trend since the last Market Readout; the figures in parenthesis express the number of weeks with the same behavior ( ▲increase, ▼decrease or = stability)
Jan/05
IPCA
Feb/05
IGP-DI
%
%
0.7
0.65
0.60
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.47
0.5
-
0.4
IGP-M
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
IPC-Fipe
%
0.7
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
Apr-04
May-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-05
0.3
Feb-05
Dec-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
0.4
0.7
%
-
0.6
0.6
-
0.5
0.5
0.40
0.4
0.4
0.40
0.3
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Feb-04
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
0.2
0.3
Over-Selic Target
Exchange Rate (end-of-period)
% p.a.
R$/US$
3.2
19
3.1
18
3.0
17
2.9
16
2.8
18.75
-
15
2.7
-
14
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
Apr-04
May-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Feb-05
Jan-05
13
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
2.6
2.65
1
Market Readout
February 11, 2005
Market Expectations
2005
Median - Aggregate
4 weeks ago 1 week ago
Today
IPCA (%)
5.70
5.75
5.74
IGP-DI (%)
6.38
6.19
6.15
IGP-M (%)
6.48
6.21
6.20
IPC-Fipe (%)
5.46
5.39
5.41
Exchange rate - end-of-period (R$/US$)
2.93
2.87
2.86
Exchange rate - average (R$/US$)
2.85
2.76
2.76
Over-Selic Target - end-of-period (% p.a.)
16.00
16.75
16.78
Over-Selic Target - average (% p.a.)
17.44
18.25
18.30
Net Public Sector Debt (% of GDP)
51.60
51.40
51.50
GDP growth (%)
3.65
3.70
3.70
Industrial Production (% growth)
4.50
4.65
4.64
Current Account (US$ billion)
3.00
3.00
3.00
Trade Balance (US$ billion)
26.00
26.49
26.50
Foreign Direct Investment (US$ billion)
13.00
14.00
14.00
7.00
7.00
7.00
Regulated Prices (%)
2006
Weekly trend*
▼
▼
▼
▲
▼
=
▲
▲
▲
=
▼
=
▲
=
=
4 weeks ago 1 week ago
Today
Weekly trend*
(1)
5.00
5.00
5.00
(2)
5.50
5.50
5.50
(1)
5.50
5.50
5.50
(1)
4.75
4.78
4.80
(2)
3.10
3.00
3.00
(1)
3.05
2.95
2.95
(3)
14.25
15.00
15.00
(7)
14.95
15.50
15.50
(1)
50.00
49.90
49.90
(3)
3.70
4.00
4.00
(1)
4.00
4.50
4.50
(7)
0.00
0.00
0.00
(1)
23.60
24.18
24.18
(1)
15.00
15.00
15.00
(1)
6.00
6.00
6.00
=
=
=
▲
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
( 39 )
( 10 )
(7)
(3)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(3)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(6)
( 10 )
* trend since the last Market Readout; the figures in parenthesis express the number of weeks with the same behavior ( ▲increase, ▼decrease or = stability)
2005
IPCA
IGP-DI
%
7.0
6.5
5.50
Exchange Rate (end-of-period)
R$/US$
3.3
3.3
3.5
3.1
3.00
3.1
4.5
2.9
2.86
2.9
4.0
2.7
18
17
15.50
16
15
Industrial Production
4.8
4.6
4.0
3.8
28
26
24
26.50
24.18
15
Feb-05
Jan-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
8
15.00
14.00
7.00
7
6.00
6
20
Feb-05
Dec-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Jul-04
Sep-04
Sep-04
Oct-04
Oct-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Oct-04
Regulated Prices
% p.a.
14
22
-5
FDI
US$ billion
16
Aug-04
-3
Feb-04
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
Trade Balance
Jul-04
-1
3.6
3.4
3.4
0.00
1
Jun-04
3.6
3.00
3
May-04
3.70
5
Apr-04
3.8
4.50
4.4
4.2
US$ billion
Mar-04
4.00
4.64
Feb-04
4.0
Jun-04
Current Account
%
4.2
Sep-04
Feb-04
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
GDP Growth
%
US$ billion
49.90
50
49
Feb-04
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
12
Feb-04
13
11
51.50
52
51
14
12
Aug-04
13
54
53
Aug-04
14
Jul-04
15.00
15
56
55
Jun-04
16
Net Public Sector Debt
% of GDP
18.30
May-04
Feb-04
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Over-Selic Target (average)
% p.a.
19
Jul-04
16.78
17
2.76
May-04
Over-Selic Target (end-of-period)
% p.a.
2.95
2.7
Feb-04
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
4.80
Mar-04
5.0
Aug-04
3.5
Mar-04
5.41
5.5
Jun-04
Exchange Rate (average)
R$/US$
Mar-04
%
Apr-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Dec-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Sep-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Jun-04
Feb-04
IPC-Fipe
Apr-04
4.5
May-04
4.5
Mar-04
Jan-05
5.0
Feb-05
Dec-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Sep-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Jun-04
Apr-04
May-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
4.0
5.50
5.5
5.0
May-04
5.5
4.5
6.20
6.0
Mar-04
5.0
6.5
6.15
6.0
Apr-04
5.00
Apr-04
5.74
5.5
6.0
IGP-M
%
7.0
Feb-04
%
6.0
2006
13
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
5
12
16
Feb-04
18
2
Market Readout
February 11, 2005
Market Expectations
Jan/05
Median - Top 5 - Short Term
4 weeks ago 1 week ago
Feb/05
Today
Weekly trend*
=
4 weeks ago 1 week ago
(1)
Today
Weekly trend*
IPCA (%)
0.60
0.59
0.59
0.63
0.70
0.65
IGP-DI (%)
0.65
-
-
0.46
0.42
0.40
IGP-M (%)
0.64
-
-
0.65
0.37
0.37
Exchange rate - end-of-period (R$/US$)
2.70
-
-
2.72
2.65
2.63
18.13
-
-
18.13
18.75
18.75
Over-Selic Target (% p.a.)
▼
▼
=
▼
=
(1)
(1)
(2)
(2)
(2)
* trend since the last Market Readout; the figures in parenthesis express the number of weeks with the same behavior ( ▲increase, ▼decrease or = stability)
Jan/05
Feb/05
SHORT-TERM
IPCA - Top 5
IGP-DI - Top 5
%
IGP-M - Top 5
%
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
%
0.9
0.8
0.65
0.59
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.40
-
0.2
3.2
% p.a.
19
3.1
18
3.0
17
2.9
16
2.8
15
Jan-05
Feb-05
Dec-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Sep-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Jun-04
Apr-04
-
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Jun-04
Apr-04
May-04
Mar-04
13
Feb-04
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
18.75
14
2.63
Feb-05
-
May-04
Over-Selic Target - Top 5
R$/US$
2.6
Feb-04
Jan-05
Exchange Rate (end-of-period) - Top 5
2.7
0.1
Feb-05
Dec-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Sep-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Jun-04
Apr-04
May-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Dec-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Sep-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Jun-04
Apr-04
May-04
0.2
Mar-04
0.3
0.37
0.3
Mar-04
0.4
Feb-04
-
0.5
0.5
Market Expectations
2005
Median - Top 5
4 weeks ago 1 week ago
Today
2006
Weekly trend*
4 weeks ago 1 week ago
Today
Weekly trend*
=
=
=
=
=
( 22 )
▼
=
=
=
=
(1)
Short Term
IPCA (%)
5.85
6.13
6.13
IGP-DI (%)
6.42
5.76
5.76
IGP-M (%)
6.59
6.06
6.05
Exchange rate - end-of-period (R$/US$)
2.85
2.85
2.85
15.75
16.50
16.50
IPCA (%)
5.69
5.80
5.80
IGP-DI (%)
6.37
6.19
6.15
IGP-M (%)
6.79
6.12
6.43
Exchange rate - end-of-period (R$/US$)
2.80
2.85
2.85
16.75
17.00
17.00
Over-Selic Target - end-of-period (% p.a.)
=
=
▼
=
=
(3)
5.00
5.00
5.00
(1)
5.50
5.55
5.55
(2)
5.50
5.56
5.56
(4)
3.00
3.00
3.00
(1)
15.00
14.75
14.75
=
▼
▲
=
=
(1)
5.00
5.25
4.85
(2)
5.25
5.00
5.00
(1)
5.50
6.23
6.23
(3)
2.96
3.00
3.00
(1)
15.00
14.00
14.00
(3)
(1)
(4)
(3)
Medium Term
Over-Selic Target - end-of-period (% p.a.)
(3)
(2)
(2)
(3)
* trend since the last Market Readout; the figures in parenthesis express the number of weeks with the same behavior ( ▲increase, ▼decrease or = stability)
3
Market Readout
February 11, 2005
Market Expectations
Jan/05
Average - Top 5 - Short Term
4 weeks ago 1 week ago
Feb/05
Today
Weekly trend*
=
4 weeks ago 1 week ago
(1)
Today
Weekly trend*
IPCA (%)
0.60
0.59
0.59
0.62
0.69
0.64
IGP-DI (%)
0.64
-
-
0.44
0.42
0.41
IGP-M (%)
0.62
-
-
0.59
0.37
0.35
Exchange rate - end-of-period (R$/US$)
2.71
-
-
2.73
2.64
2.63
18.08
-
-
18.21
18.75
18.75
Over-Selic Target (% p.a.)
▼
▼
▼
▼
=
(1)
(1)
(1)
(4)
(1)
* trend since the last Market Readout; the figures in parenthesis express the number of weeks with the same behavior ( ▲increase, ▼decrease or = stability)
Jan/05
Feb/05
SHORT-TERM
IPCA - Top 5
IGP-DI - Top 5
%
IGP-M - Top 5
%
0.9
%
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.4
0.2
3.2
19
3.1
18
3.0
17
2.9
16
2.8
15
Jan-05
Feb-05
Dec-04
Oct-04
-
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Jun-04
Apr-04
May-04
Mar-04
13
Feb-04
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
18.75
14
2.63
Feb-05
-
2.6
Nov-04
Over-Selic Target - Top 5
% p.a.
R$/US$
2.7
Sep-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Jun-04
Feb-04
Jan-05
Exchange Rate (end-of-period) - Top 5
Feb-04
0.1
Feb-05
Dec-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Sep-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Jun-04
Apr-04
May-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Dec-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Sep-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Jun-04
Apr-04
May-04
Mar-04
0.35
0.3
0.2
Feb-04
0.3
0.4
0.41
0.4
-
0.5
Apr-04
0.5
0.6
-
May-04
0.64
0.59
0.6
0.7
0.6
Mar-04
0.7
Market Expectations
2005
Average - Top 5
4 weeks ago 1 week ago
Today
2006
Weekly trend*
4 weeks ago 1 week ago
Today
Weekly trend*
Short Term
IPCA (%)
5.78
5.98
5.98
IGP-DI (%)
6.31
5.89
5.75
IGP-M (%)
6.92
5.93
5.90
Exchange rate - end-of-period (R$/US$)
2.89
2.83
2.83
16.13
16.71
16.67
IPCA (%)
5.61
5.81
5.76
IGP-DI (%)
6.30
6.02
5.96
IGP-M (%)
6.61
6.58
6.57
Exchange rate - end-of-period (R$/US$)
2.87
2.86
2.86
16.75
16.95
16.95
Over-Selic Target - end-of-period (% p.a.)
=
▼
▼
=
▼
(2)
5.00
5.18
5.18
(5)
5.09
5.47
5.43
(1)
5.23
5.59
5.59
(1)
3.02
2.95
2.95
(1)
14.67
14.75
14.75
▼
▼
▼
=
=
(1)
4.92
5.19
4.93
(2)
5.25
4.96
4.96
(3)
5.38
5.98
5.98
(2)
2.97
2.97
2.97
(1)
14.80
14.50
14.50
=
▼
=
=
=
(3)
▼
=
=
=
=
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(2)
Medium Term
Over-Selic Target - end-of-period (% p.a.)
(3)
(1)
(4)
(1)
* trend since the last Market Readout; the figures in parenthesis express the number of weeks with the same behavior ( ▲increase, ▼decrease or = stability)
4