Previdencia Social:
Historia, Fatos, Politicas Dificais
Conferencia Dedicada a Obra de
Francisco Eduardo Barreto de Oliveira
William McGreevey, Futures Group
Rio de Janeiro, Brasil
December 2002
Algumas Questoes
The Labor-Leisure Choice: Measured, Full
Income
Consumption-Income Tradeoff for the elderly
How much myopia, moral hazard, adverse
selection, and other “failures?”
Path Dependence: Will middle and lowincome countries follow OECD country paths?
Como Chico Previdencia
mudou o Banco Mundial
1982: Investimento Publico – Sector
Saude
Ministerio de Saude
INAMPS
1983: Desde INAMPS ao INPS
1986: Gasto Social
1988: Politicas Sociais
Os Fatos Estilizados, 1
A demanda para lazer aumenta com
renda
Aposentadaria ceda aumenta so, a um
nivel ao fondo dos paises do OCDE
Horas de trabalho cairam na Franca e
Alemanha de 2000 por ano a 1600 (final
dos 1990s)
US Excepcional: horas constante, 1960-95
STYLIZED FACTS, 2
Aos Estados Unidos…
Somente 20% se prepara para aposentarse;
Americanos tipicos de idade 50-59 tem somente
$12,000 em fondos financeiros.
Previdencia social sustituye a poupanca pessoal
Posse de casa propria em 7 paises do OCDE em
domicilios ‘velhos’ (65+) varia entre 46%
(Sweden) e 90% (USA_.
Governo e Tentacao de
Redistribuicao da Renda
Governo/PIB na Regiao America Latina
Low = 0.15
High = 0.30
Y pobres/Y total = 0.02 para o Brasil
Entao. . . Uma decima da arrecadacao do
governo, transferido ao quintal mas pobre,
pode dobrar o seu consumo.
A inequidade tenta ao governo ‘solucionar’ o
problema de pobreza a traves de
redistribucao
Fresh-water, salt-water Views
on Market Failure
Asymmetric Information
Procrastination
Myopia
Principal - Agent Problem
Adverse Selection
Moral Hazard
Social Security and Efficiency:
Terms and Conditions
Fiscal Burden -- payments exceed
revenues
Moral Hazard -- behavior changes
because of a contract
Excessive Payroll Taxes -- labor costs
reduce competitivenesss
Poor Investment Strategies -- erosion of
funds with inflation
Figure 1.2. Only 60 percent of paid State employees and survivors or
dependents are at work. Inactive, retired payment recipients are a
quarter of the total, and about 15 percent are surviving widows and
orphans. Male survivors are not pension eligible.
Inactive
25%
Active
61%
Survivor
Beneficiaries
Figure 1.5. Retired civil servants will increase in number from
about 80,000 now to more than 150,000 by 2030.
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
YEAR
Males95
Females95
Males
Females
2026
The Implicit Pension Debt
For several countries pension debt is far
greater than foreign debt
A Dívida Implícita
No Brasil, a dívida implícita a inativos e
pensionistas foi, ha 10 anos, 6 vezes
mas oneroso que as obrigaçóes a pagar
a dívida externa
Foi “Chico Previdencia” e suas colegas
quem subrayaram os peligros dessa
situacao
Divida previdenciaria excediu divida externa, ca. 1990
IPD/GDP
2.5
2
XDebt/GNP
2.1
2.1
1.9
1.5
1
0.5
0.3
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.6
0.2
0.7
0.7
0.5
Tu
rk
ey
Hu
ng
ar
y
Ch
in
a
ue
la
Ve
ne
z
Pe
ru
Ur
ug
ua
y
BR
AZ
IL
0
STYLIZED POLICIES
Four Grand Traditions: Germany, UK, USSR,
USSR
The Impact of War and Crisis on Taxing
Capacity
Variants in Cultures’ Demand for Security
versus Income
Coping with Myopia, inviting moral hazard
Finding a Third Way, or a Middle Way
BRASIL. Populacao e Beneficios Recibidos
por Faixa de Renda, 1985
Salarios
Populacao
Minimo/pessoa
>20
n
10 -20
N
5 -10
NNN
2-5
NNNNNNNNNNNN
1-2
NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN
1/2- 1 NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN
1/4-1/2 NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN
<1/4
NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN
TOTAL
Porcentagem
0.3
1
3
12
18
24
22
19
100
Beneficios Sociais
SEEH
SSSSSEEEEUUUHH
SSSSSSSSSSSEEEEUUUUHH
SSSSSSSSSSSEEEEEUUUHH
SSSSSSSSSSSEEEEUUUHHWL
SSEUUUUHHWT
SEEHHWF
Percent
0
4
14
21
21
22
11
7
100
Cada N = 1 porcento de populacao; n < 1/2 percent.
S = Previdencia Social; E = Educacao; U=Infraestutura Urbana e Habitacao; H=Saude Publica;
W=Agua e Saneamento; T=Transporte Publico; L=Trabalhadores; F=Nutricao e Alimentacao
Fonte: PNAD85; World Bank, Brasil public social spending, issues and options (Wash DC 1988, p. 19).
Higher Taxes can Inhibit
Growth and Efficiency
Financing Health
Region
Private health
expenditures as % of total
India
78
Other Asia
61
Sub-Saharan Africa
47
Middle Eastern crescent
43
China
41
Established market economies
39
Latin American and Caribbean
39
Formerly socialist economies
29
No promedio, 43 paises comecou a controlar as
despesas previdenciarias nos anos 1990
Sources of growth
1972-80
1980-91
autonomous (constant term)
13.952
1.751
due to income, holding age
distribution constant
due to age distribution, holding
income constant
Total
14.282
7.988
26.336
-1.092
54.570
8.647
Otimismo o Pesimismo?
Dependencia de caminho causa certa
pesimismo no caso Brasileiro
QWERTY e ineficiencia
E posivel reformar?
Limites naturais a Camisa Forte
Dorada….