An example of a fire risk
applied to Portugal: Forest Fire
Combined Risk Index (ICRIF)
Lourdes Bugalho, IPMA
Polar Satellites Week
EUMETRAIN
(5 to 9 November 2012)
Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera. Rua C – Aeroporto de Lisboa 1749-077 Lisboa – Portugal Tel.: (351) 21 844 7000
Fax: (351) 21 840 2370
e-mail: [email protected]
URL: http://www.meteo.pt
Outline
- Why a forest fire risk index
- Advantage of the spatial resolution
of low orbit polar (NOAA(EPS)
/AVHRR) compared with GEO
satellites system (MSG/SEVIRI)
- Factors of Forest Fire
- Forest Fire Risk Indexes:
- Fire Weather Index (FWI)
- Forest Fire Combined Risk
Index (ICRIF)
Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera. Rua C – Aeroporto de Lisboa 1749-077 Lisboa – Portugal Tel.: (351) 21 844 7000
Fax: (351) 21 840 2370
e-mail: [email protected]
URL: http://www.meteo.pt
Why a forest fire risk index ?
Forest fires are one of the most devastating natural disasters that
occur in mainland Portugal in the summer, with an impact on the
economy, environment and climate.
250 000
Portugal Continental - Burnt Area (ha)
Burnt Area (ha) .
200 000
Anual
Average 1981-2010
150 000
100 000
50 000
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
0
year
Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera. Rua C – Aeroporto de Lisboa 1749-077 Lisboa – Portugal Tel.: (351) 21 844 7000
Fax: (351) 21 840 2370
e-mail: [email protected]
URL: http://www.meteo.pt
Spatial resolution of
LEO vs. GEO satellites
Low flight altitude leads a
higher ground resolution
than geostationary satellites.
Over Portugal, the number
of pixels is:
-123882
AVHRR(NOAA/EPS)
- 5899 SEVIRI (MSG).
Distrito
Pixel spatial
Resolution
(1.1 x 1.1 km)
Pixel spatial
Resolution
(~ 4x4 km)
V.Castelo
Bragança
V. Real
Porto
Viseu
Aveiro
Coimbra
C. Branco
Santarém
Portalegre
Évora
Lisboa
Setúbal
Beja
Faro
3299
9700
6341
3383
7203
4025
5609
9295
9249
8347
9982
3823
6763
13569
6508
148
438
271
153
344
184
270
443
437
402
503
182
341
704
347
Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera. Rua C – Aeroporto de Lisboa 1749-077 Lisboa – Portugal Tel.: (351) 21 844 7000
Fax: (351) 21 840 2370
e-mail: [email protected]
URL: http://www.meteo.pt
Spatial resolution of LEO vs. GEO satellites
ICRIF (Combined Fire Risk Index)
FRM (Fire Risk Map - LSASAF)
Spatial Resolution 1.1 x 1.1 km
Spatial Resolution ~ 4 x 4 km
28
AUGUST
2012
(AVHRR/NOAA)
(SEVIRI/MSG)
Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera. Rua C – Aeroporto de Lisboa 1749-077 Lisboa – Portugal Tel.: (351) 21 844 7000
Fax: (351) 21 840 2370
e-mail: [email protected]
URL: http://www.meteo.pt
Spatial resolution of LEO vs. GEO satellites
ICRIF (Combined Fire Risk Index)
Spatial Resolution 1.1 x 1.1 km
(AVHRR/NOAA)
28 AUGUST 2012
Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera. Rua C – Aeroporto de Lisboa 1749-077 Lisboa – Portugal Tel.: (351) 21 844 7000
FRM (Fire Risk Map - LSASAF)
Spatial Resolution ~ 4 x 4 km
(SEVIRI/MSG)
Fax: (351) 21 840 2370
e-mail: [email protected]
URL: http://www.meteo.pt
ICRIF
ICRIF
Meteorological conditions
Vegetation conditions
FWI
NDVI
(Canadian Fire Weather Index)
Risk associated to a Veg. index
Land cover - Structural Risk
Risk associated to a land cover map (CORINE)
Computed once a year on the beginning of the fire season
Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera. Rua C – Aeroporto de Lisboa 1749-077 Lisboa – Portugal Tel.: (351) 21 844 7000
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FWI - Canadian Fire Weather Index
 recommended by
European Commission 1995
 calculated in 85 stations
 parameters required: air temperature,
relative humidity,
wind direction and velocity at 10m,

rainfall in the last 24 hours
performs very good compared
with several other indices
FWI is spatialized to grid the AVHRR / NOAA or
EPS images (aprox.1.1kmx1.1km)
Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera. Rua C – Aeroporto de Lisboa 1749-077 Lisboa – Portugal Tel.: (351) 21 844 7000
Fax: (351) 21 840 2370
e-mail: [email protected]
URL: http://www.meteo.pt
FWI spatialized to 1.1 x 1.1 km
FWI - 20120829
FWI - 20120828
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Fax: (351) 21 840 2370
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Structural risk – Land Cover
Land cover and vegetation type map made from CORINE 2000 database
Structural risk level for fire ignition and propagation:
processed by scaling CORINE 2000 with
resolution of 1.1 km (AVHRR resolution at nadir)
CLC 2000: polar satellites used :
 SPOT-Panchromatic channel, resolution 10x10 m
 Landsat–MSS (sensor), resolution 80x80 m
Spatial resolution of CORINE Land Cover 2000
(100 x 100m)
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CORINE Land Cover 2000
Risk factor
Land Cover Classification – 42 classes
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Structural Risk
 Each NOAA pixel is represented by a vector with 42 elements, giving the
area occupied by each of the CORINE components.
1.1 km
CORINE resolution = 100m x 100m
Ak * Rk
Each NOAA
pixel contain
information
about all 42
classes
# Pixels k 1.1 km
AK 
# totalPixel s
Vector = [A1*R1 ..... A42*R42]
The structural risk was built assigning a risk to each of the classes (Rk)
The final structural risk (FUELRISK) for each pixel is a combination of the
different risk pondered by the corresponded area
FUELRISK =  (Ak * Rk)
Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera. Rua C – Aeroporto de Lisboa 1749-077 Lisboa – Portugal Tel.: (351) 21 844 7000
Fax: (351) 21 840 2370
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From CORINE to Structural Risk
Structural risk
CLC 2000
 (Ak * Rk)
Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera. Rua C – Aeroporto de Lisboa 1749-077 Lisboa – Portugal Tel.: (351) 21 844 7000
Fax: (351) 21 840 2370
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URL: http://www.meteo.pt
AVHRR/NOAA
NDVI
 the best satellite angle
 a passage over Portugal between 11-15 UTC - zenith solar
angle less than 50º (between May and October)
shift composite of 10 days NDVI computed considering the
maximum value of NDVI in 10 days
28 August 2012
CH1 (VIS): 0.58 - 0.68 m
CH2 (NIR): 0.725 - 1.1 m
CH 2  CH 1
NDVI 
CH 2  CH 1
Spatial resolution 1.1 x 1.1 km
Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera. Rua C – Aeroporto de Lisboa 1749-077 Lisboa – Portugal Tel.: (351) 21 844 7000
Fax: (351) 21 840 2370
e-mail: [email protected]
URL: http://www.meteo.pt
ICRIF
a * FWI * Fuel  f ( NDVI )  ICRIF
28 AUGUST 2012
Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera. Rua C – Aeroporto de Lisboa 1749-077 Lisboa – Portugal Tel.: (351) 21 844 7000
Fax: (351) 21 840 2370
e-mail: [email protected]
URL: http://www.meteo.pt
ICRIF
validation of a fire risk:
linking forest fire events (number and burnt areas) with
the risk
 Daily comparison between risk and burnt area for each district
 Contingent table for each district
 not easy
Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera. Rua C – Aeroporto de Lisboa 1749-077 Lisboa – Portugal Tel.: (351) 21 844 7000
Fax: (351) 21 840 2370
e-mail: [email protected]
URL: http://www.meteo.pt
References
Bugalho, L., Pires, V., 2005 – “Monthly Analyse of NDVI at Portugal and
their Relationship with Soil Water Balance “–
Proceeding of 4ª Simpósio de Meteorologia e Geofísica da APMG, 14 a 17
Fevereiro 2005.
Bugalho, L., Pessanha, L., 2007 – “Análise e validação do Índice de Risco
de Incêndio Florestal” –
Proceeding of 5º Simpósio de Meteorologia e Geofísica da APMG, 5 a 8
Fevereiro 2007.
Bugalho, L. and Pessanha, L., 2007: “The forest fire risk index (ICRIF)
operational processing and validation”.
4th International Wildland Fire Conference, 13th-17th May 2007, Seville,
Spain.
Bugalho, L., Pessanha, L., 2009 - “Análise Estatística dos Incêndios
Florestais em Portugal e Avaliação do Índice ICRIF”Territorium nº16 2009 Rev. da Associação Port. de Riscos Prevenção e
Segurança
Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera. Rua C – Aeroporto de Lisboa 1749-077 Lisboa – Portugal Tel.: (351) 21 844 7000
Fax: (351) 21 840 2370
e-mail: [email protected]
URL: http://www.meteo.pt
Thank you !
Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera. Rua C – Aeroporto de Lisboa 1749-077 Lisboa – Portugal Tel.: (351) 21 844 7000
Fax: (351) 21 840 2370
e-mail: [email protected]
URL: http://www.meteo.pt